Get ready for some eye-opening insights into the UK's economic landscape!
The Decision Maker Panel Survey: Unveiling the Trends
In the latest Decision Maker Panel survey for Q4 2025, we dive into the world of cookies (not the sweet kind!) and explore how businesses are navigating the economic waters. But here's where it gets controversial: the use of cookies and data collection is a hot topic, and we want to ensure you understand your choices.
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The Decision Maker Panel: A Window into UK Businesses
The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of chief financial officers from small to large UK businesses across various industries. It's our way of keeping a finger on the pulse of the economy and understanding businesses' perspectives. Here's a glimpse into the key findings up until November 2025.
Price Growth: A Slight Rise, but What's the Story Behind It?
Firms in the DMP reported a slight increase in their own price growth after a year of decline. However, the story varies across sectors. Services saw a higher price inflation rate than goods, with both sectors expecting a slight shift in prices over the next year. But this is the part most people miss: price inflation remains a concern, and understanding these nuances is crucial.
Employment Growth: A Cause for Concern?
Employment growth among DMP firms has taken a turn for the worse, with the latest data showing a negative trend. This is the lowest annual employment growth since the Covid pandemic. Firms expect little to no recovery in employment over the next 12 months. So, what's causing this slowdown? Let's explore the potential reasons.
Wage Growth: A Mixed Bag
Annual wage growth has been on a downward trajectory. While some industries, like consumer-facing services, continue to see higher wage growth, others, like goods firms, anticipate a decline. The DMP data shows a fall in wage growth since its peak in 2023. But here's an interesting twist: wage growth varies based on firms' exposure to the National Living Wage (NLW). Firms with higher NLW exposure have reported stronger wage growth.
Firms' Responses to NICs and NLW Increases: A Surprising Turn
The increase in employer National Insurance contributions (NICs) and the NLW in April 2025 had an impact on businesses. Interestingly, firms' actual responses to these changes differed from their expectations. While lowering profit margins remained the most common adjustment, fewer firms raised prices or reduced staff than anticipated. The biggest surprise? Only 17% of firms lowered wages, despite 38% expecting to do so.
Employment and NICs: A Complex Relationship
Increases in the NLW supported wage growth, but employment took a hit. A notable number of firms reduced employment in response to the NICs increase, which came into effect in April 2025. Employment growth weakened sharply for these firms, while those that didn't adjust employment saw stable growth. This suggests that the NICs increase is a significant factor in the overall employment slowdown.
Methodology: A Transparent Approach
The DMP consists of chief financial officers from a diverse range of UK businesses. We survey these experts to monitor economic developments and track businesses' views. Our work complements the intelligence gathered by our Agents. All results are weighted using employment data, ensuring a representative sample. The DMP is a collaborative effort between the Bank of England, King's College London, and the University of Nottingham, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.
Stay Informed: Explore the Data
For more detailed insights, check out the monthly and quarterly data releases on our website. We encourage you to explore and stay updated on the latest economic trends. And remember, your feedback and thoughts are always welcome!
So, what are your thoughts on these economic trends? Do you agree with the interpretations, or do you have a different perspective? We'd love to hear your comments and spark a discussion!
